Cowboy is quoting figures that do not apply to a by election in a labor held seat when there is a labor govt in Canberra. He is using average swings across all by elections. But that is not applicable to a labor seat in a labor govt.
The correct swing has been 8.2% against Labor according to Antony Green.
This is direct quote from Green.
At the eight by-elections in Labor seats during Labor governments, the average swing was 8.2%
https://antonygreen.com.au/background-on-federal-by-election-swings/
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