what do others think?, page-4

Hi Wasa,

I'd be careful about making the assumption that the other two wells are going to be drilled, and also that they will be free carried. The announcements state that there is One firm well, and 2 contingent wells (contingent upon what? success of the first??)

The free carry through peak oil (for the 2nd and 3rd wells) is also dependent on them having successfully floated on the ASX by 14th Dec (I haven't checked on how their IPO is going) I thought it was a little odd that the 1st well didn't have this requirement but the announcement says that they will contribute 1.3Million from existing cash reserves so I guess they are privately owned and looking to expand....

Whilst the 2nd and third wells are not firm, it seems highly unlikely that CVN would decide to abandon the permit based on one duster, so maybe the "contingent" bit means that if the 1st is a duster they will re-evaluate which wells should be drilled next.

I don't know if you saw the goings on of AKK when they started drilling... massive ramping ensured that pretty much every hole they drilled had a big sp hike before being declared a duster.

I think that there is enough interest in this area (especially with the success CVN has already had) to mean that a duster won't kill the anticipation for future holes, yeah it might be a bit more subdued but if there is a success say in the second, then any negativity due to the first failing will more than likely be forgotten....

CVN holders should be aware of SUR's existance through the announcements, and if they do a little research will see the additional leverage that holding SUR should give provided the wells are a success.

Interesting times ahead! Hopefully the wait has been worth it :)

BTW I checked and my average buy price is 9.4c I don't hold that many shares, less than 60,000 but if they come good they will certainly make my portfolio look a lot healthier!

Tony.