The next big surge in gold has started, and sub-$2000 pricing may be a thing of the past.
A $1 billion capital injection saved New York Community Bancorp mid-week; was that enough to arrest its decline?
Lagarde signals the ECB may cut rates in June, and Powell emphasizes cuts "at some point this year."
Banking Crisis Update
- Monday will mark the one-year anniversary of last year's banking crisis and collapse of SVB.
- This year New York Community Bank is center stage with a deeply underwater (rent controlled) loan book.
- Wednesday's panic ceased, for now, but if deposits flee (bank run), NYCB could be in deep trouble next week.
NYCB DAILY
New York Community Bancorp(NYCB)was down 45% intraday Wednesday as trading halted pending news. Thirty minutes earlier, NYCB announced it was seeking capital to shore up its balance sheet.
A $1 billion rescue package was announced around 2:30 PM, and prices rallied into the close. According to banking expertChris Whalen, the $1 billion capital injection is likely insufficient, and a number closer to $10 billion is needed.
Precious Metals & Mining Update
GOLD WEEKLY-Unless something dramatically changes, we have a weekly breakout in gold. A 50% rally succeeded a similar breakout in 2019.
GOLD DAILY-Gold is finally breaking above $2100, and I believe we are in the initial stages of a powerful multi-month rally.
Expect increased volatility and gut-wrenching corrections along the way. This cycle should press to the upside into late April or early
May.
SILVER-Silver often lags gold at the beginning of a cycle and plays catchup towards the end. Consequently, the real fireworks may start in April. Getting above $26.00 is essential.
PLATINUM—We have progressive closes above the 50-day EMA and a cycle bottom. Next, prices must conquer the $1000 level to ignite more upside.
AU-Anglogold Ashanti has broken free from its rounded bottom, supporting a breakout across gold miners.
GDX-Gold miners have gapped higher for six consecutive opens. We have a cycle low, but prices must transcend $32.50 to attract more upside.
GDXJ-The level to beat in juniors is $40.00. Once we clear that, things could get exciting.
SILJ-Silver juniors need to best the $10.60 level to confirm a critical breakout.
S&P 500- Stocks made a new closing high, quickly reversing Tuesday's gap. The market continues unabated, and the trend is deeply overbought.
Conclusion
The next big surge in gold has started, and sub-$2000 pricing may be a thing of the past. Gold miners are stupid cheap and should play catch up in the coming months.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For daily market updates, consider subscribing www.GoldPredict.com.
