Technically SMR looks like it's in trouble. So does WHC. Declining momentum over the last year and large distribution weeks.
Fundamentally it looks great, but it's very obvious. Cyclical stocks typically peak when P/Es are at their lowest. Last year's price action showed how traders of these coal stocks have no regard for earnings multiples. It's all related to global inflation and resource supply/demand fluctuations.
Who knows where the floor price for PCI is post CoVID? Pre CoVID it was below US$100/t, and now it's US$180/t. Have inflation and supply curbs lifted the global price at least 80%？Do you want to have to wait 5 years for the fundamental thesis to play out to get your invested cash back, while assuming the risk of the met coal floor price actually being much lower than the current price?
Also seasonality is weak from now, post February.
And the largest doubt for these met coal stocks has been BHP, the biggest and most knowledgable player in the market, dumping its met coal mine bags on WHC last year. BHP and its canny bankers waited and drew out the sale process to October when HCC was US$330/t, selling their PCI off-cuts for 3% of the company's market cap.
I hold it but just saying...
SMR Price at posting:
$3.23 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)