IVZ

1.49%

6.8¢ invictus energy ltd

IVZ Chart, page-91

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Flambeau

6,481 Posts.

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14/03/24

13:57

Post #: 72885071
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Originally posted by timmasbd: ↑

I think the negative sentiment is coming from a number of areas:
Firstly, they had to desperately raise cash at the end of last year which led to this disconnect between the soph raise and the Rights Issue to retail. People sold off, the price collapsed, and there was no incentive to retail to participate in the rights issue. If they had waited and done the two together, then it likely would have been more successful.
The above - I think - all occurred because IVZ had this (now proven to be false) expectation of a massive spike in share price on announcement of a discovery. They didn't take into account the lack of retail money currently willing to invest in the market, and the number of people who were holding hoping to sell-out on discovery. So the discovery announcement just introduced huge selling pressure. It probably didn't help that it all occurred around christmas when people are usually looking for more cash to get themselves through.
We're almost three months into the year and we have no clue on when any of the forward work is going to occur. It could easily be another 6 months with no tangible progress. Yes, we may get some more lab results, but I doubt they'll tell us anything that the market cares about.
Now that they've failed to raise much money - they have literally no way of even getting close to completing ANY of the forward work plan. Given their corporate overheads, payments to keep the rig warm stacked etc. it's doubtful the cash they've got on hand follow the raises will be enough to get a flow test, let alone taking into account the fact that they will be spending money doing 3D seismic and ordering long-leads for other wells + continuing to pay for processing of the eastern seismic data (which I can't believe we're still waiting on!!).

All of the above means that they are literally over a barrel in terms of funding. They need a decent amount of additional capital to make any further progress that is likely to substantially improve the share price. And I sincerely doubt any institutions and other large potential investors are going to be nice and give them funding at a premium. Even if we get the PPSA signed, I am highly doubtful that we're all of a sudden going to have a large company ride in and save us. They'll completely low-ball because they know they have all the negotiating power if IVZ doesn't have any other way to raise capital.

It doesn't matter how big the resource is that we may or may not have - sentiment and perception for IVZ at the moment is shocking. People aren't going to believe anything they say. I'm planning on continuing to hold, I think this has a long-term future and I do still believe they have a substantial resource that will eventually be worth quite a lot. But in the short term (i.e. 6 months) I don't see any reprieves unless something astounding happens from a funding perspective.

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Well written. That all makes sense.
IVZ Price at posting: 8.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last 6.8¢		Change 0.001(1.49%)		Mkt cap ! $96.41M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
6.7¢	6.9¢	6.7¢	$34.82K	512.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	150899	6.8¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.9¢	131225	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	150899	0.068
1	150000	0.067
6	376496	0.066
5	893384	0.065
1	100999	0.064

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.069	131225	1
0.070	494994	5
0.071	370417	2
0.072	550000	2
0.073	460000	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

IVZ (ASX) Chart

IVZ Chart, page-91

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IVZ Chart, page-91

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