It's really hard to evaluate, but I give my assumptions on stage 1 and production state.
Ardea as a company is hard to crack into pieces for prediction, because shares are tightly hold and that goves extra boost to SP. I agree with You that after stage 1, we should see SP around 0.85-1$ (MC 170mil to 200 mil). If shares on issue stay at the current level, I would expect SP 6+$ with market cap around 1.2-1.5 bln. But nickel price has to recover first and debt can't be too heavy burden on profit in this scenario. Also ARL has to pull out at least 50% in order to achieve this MC. But I think more or less SP should be at least 5$. But as soon as the project is under construction phase, they continue drilling and that lifts SP even more.
I assume that SP will gain significant boost with DFS announcement and with project under construction. This is like a security for new shareholders. But again, I hope they will pull out at least 50% of the project and won't issue too much new shares. Somehow I think ARL will pull unexpected straw out of this and surprise us all.
ARL Price at posting:
66.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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