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Any thoughts?"
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Yeah, don't trust anything I've got to say and don't bet the house on what I say. I'm just a random coal punter who loves the black stuff.
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Thermal 6000 will struggle below $100 and PLV met will struggle below $200. Take realisations for different products from those two points to get a idea of the bottom. Once prices go below those points, mines start to close and prices go back up. Thermal is close to the bottom and met is on the way there, but, there's met shortages on the 2-5 year horizon, so it's an interesting play. Boom bust nature you speak of is close, but, there's no real bust for coal because it's a fundamental unit of society... It's more like:
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1) boom from demand,
2) then over supply,
3) then reduction in prices back to marginal producers only
4) these marginal producers begin to exhaust
5) more demand than mines can supply
6) boom from demand
7) repeat.
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Thats real simple and not quite right, but, that's it. I personally see 1, 4 & 20 year cycles of investment for various supply reasons. There's also 40/80 year generational cycles, but, harder to map out. Currently we're at the bottom of a four year cycle and we're about a quarter to a third of the way up a 20 year cycle. If I was to take a punt, I'd say we're close to the bottom of a 40/80 year cycle, or just past the bottom. I see this through the ignorant propagation of subjectively opinionated ideological positions such as "climate change" and "energy transition" which ignore objective facts within their fundamental premises. The unhinged religious eco fascists have infiltrated our society in such a way whereby they have severely restricted the exploration and development phase of the coal cycle. Good or bad, that another discussion for another time. Pragmatically what this means is that we're coming through the bottom of a 40/80 year cycle and demand is about to outstrip supply by a significant margin for an unusually extended time. It's basic economics what the price will do when this imbalance occurs. All one really needs do is buy and hold. It's possible to trade the seasonality, but, miss out on a leg up and it's a significant miss. Therefore, buy and hold over the next 10-20-30 years will provide an excellent retirement and maybe even fund the kids private school fees for a generation or three out of dividends.
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Dont fall for the gas or nuclear hype, they're an important mix, but, they can't get rolled out as fast or as cheap as coal can, not saying they're bad, I've got small holdings in that area to keep things interesting. If you're thinking renewable energy, then go join a hippy commune and be poor from day one.
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