The point I was making is not about whether to go with current producers or not.
It is that
1) Sustainable EV growth to scale comes at the expense of a more reasonable battery mineral (incl lithium) pricing
2) The global supply market would be different in a few years, Lithium America, Canadian mines, Exxon and many more including a few in EU would become big players, and our Aussie lithium producers would no longer be as 'commanding' as we are today
3) Lithium producers have fixed known reserves, they last up to 15-20 years, so the key variable to dictate their upside is the commodity price. I am saying the commodity price won't be anything we've seen the last few years which were largely due to supply chain shocks, overexuberant EV demand projections and few suppliers on the global scale.
4) LTR at current price has market cap of $3B, its DFS projects a NPV of $4.2B at US$1392/t price (now US$1050) , even if prices return to US$1400 level on a sustainable basis, (4.2/3)*$1.25 = $1.75 price. And the DFS badly needs to be revised to incorporate higher cost and capex assumptions and possibly even deferred production.
LTR Price at posting:
$1.25 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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