Yes I agree, it feels like the beginning of a narrative-changing epic scene. Clinuvel have a lot of weapons at their disposal and they are only just on the verge of starting to use them. 12 months to come of buying back shares and they have stated they will just keep going with that as long as it takes until manipulators leave and/or a much fairer valuation is achieved. That is an epic signal in itself when a very profitable and extremely cashed up company makes those sort of noises.
Shorters have had CUV all to themselves for many years but with the price at these ridiculous lows they are in a risky situation. Weak hands would have left this stock after 5 years of gut-churning manipulation, new holders could see this as an opportunity as Clinuvel themselves see this as a great opportunity to invest in themselves with a serious buyback. A phase 3 trial is now running in a blockbuster indication with FDA submission slated for 2026 and the Vitiligo indication is known to work and the Clinuvel drug is already FDA approved and proven SAFE so the likelihood of this being approved is very high in my opinion. Shorters have long been the main sellers in the market with their fake shares and circular trading and when they switch to buying real shares it should become interesting - as Clinuvel will also be buying back shares to remove that liquidity forever. However, expect criminal activity and various manipulation to continue with the shorters as that is just what they do.
Short selling CUV now would seem to be just about the most risky play ever with the blockbuster Phase 3 clock ticking, no hope of this company going broke which is when shorting works best, and with the upside (for shorters) being making a couple more bucks while the downside risk is theoretically unlimited. I think most analysts are rating CUV Price Targets in the low/mid $20s just on EPP and one with Vitiligo priced in is ~$50 and those targets were before the buyback was announced which will increase EPS. I would much rather be long CUV here. Also consider if some of the following scenarios occur, I will leave out all the R&D pipeline which is not priced in at all here but will just mention some financial scenarios that could also make the situation dire for shorters. These scenarios have various levels of likelihood but none are good for someone who is short.
* Clinuvel stated how just one institution who purchased a large number of shares was enough to take the price to the Sep 2021 peak of over $40. Manipulators have worked it down since then but imagine if CUV could attract just one more insto. to buy shares like that. Imagine if they could attract more - the market signals they have given are a strong force when giving a presentation to institutions because they know the company is going to be buying back shares and are intent on raising the SP.
* Existing long term (and extremely wealthy) holders like Sean Parker could add to their holdings, he did after all recently make a bullish statement on how this company is on a path to growth unlike any other.
* Some other extremely rich personality could come on board with significant purchasing as Clinuvel have shown they will go after very high net worth individuals - so far Soirees etc would seem to be largely unsuccessful in doing this so they need to improve in this area but they are giving off all the right signals now.
* Directors/management could buy a significant number of CUV shares to also signal their willingness to fight back against those gambling against the company.
* Interest rate cuts and general market sentiment switch back to growth stocks will also assist.
* Longer term if the company is successful in restoring valuation and then getting back into the ASX200 that will bring in somewhere around half to one million shares from ETFs IMO which would further add to momentum.
Going to be very interesting to watch this play out.
All IMO DYOR
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- Ann: CLINUVEL Newsletter II - March 2024
Ann: CLINUVEL Newsletter II - March 2024, page-12
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Last
$14.72 |
Change
-0.100(0.67%) |
Mkt cap ! $737.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$14.80 | $14.97 | $14.60 | $600.3K | 40.64K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 324 | $14.69 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$14.75 | 100 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 324 | 14.690 |
1 | 324 | 14.660 |
1 | 324 | 14.640 |
1 | 324 | 14.610 |
1 | 20 | 14.600 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.750 | 100 | 1 |
14.840 | 324 | 1 |
14.860 | 324 | 1 |
14.890 | 324 | 1 |
14.920 | 324 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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CUV (ASX) Chart |