Ann: UK Southern Gas Basin - Operational Update, page-141

This forecast makes interesting reading. The one statistic that seems baked in is that electricity demand will increase 50% by 2036 and 100% by 2050. How much of that will be generated by renewables is much less certain.
The Uk consumes approx 300twh of electricity right now of which 40% (120twh) is generated by gas. According to the attached forecast, that will need to halve to 20% by 2050 to meet net zero.
Simple maths tells us that 20% of 600twh is still 120twh. Ie the amount of gas used to generate electricity will not change.
Now, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that I think that net zero, is frankly unattainable without exporting carbon by closing down industries and getting goods made overseas instead. On top of the obvious destruction of Balance of payments this will cause, and the inevitable slow down in growth they would suffer, the North Sea reserves are also depleting which means they will be importing far more gas in 26 years than they are today, with a higher carbon footprint and a further deterioration of the BOP deficit.
Then there is the elephant in the room. The actual science. Is CO2 REALLY responsible for climate change. I know, it’s deemed heretical to even suggest that the science isn’t settled, BUT we will know more in the next few years. Additionally, the political climate in Europe is starting change centering around the question of whether the whole exercise is worth the cost to households, their livelihoods and their well being. One thing you can count on is a politician’s ability to read the tea leaves and abruptly change tact. Just saying….