Sorry, but your understanding is wrong. They are moving ahead with the refinery for construction to start this year. Iwatani will be a part of that and when the finance comes through "this year" the SP won't be 6 cents. I can't crystal ball and say what exactly the figure will be but for the first cobalt refinery to be in construction in Australia will be higher than what it is currently. 200 million market cap would be realistic in my view. Hopefully the finance won't be too dilutive in nature.
The April 2026 Heads of Agreement is a deadline timeframe to come up with a deal for the Broken Hill mine. And it's a deadline day! The focus is on the refinery and once that is halfway through construction combined with a stable uplift in the cobalt price then expect something to happen (Finance) on the Broken Hill mine middle to the end of 2025. If the cobalt price stays really low throughout 2025 then yes, perhaps they will wait to the last day in April 2026.
But, if the refinery goes through this year, you will still see solid SP growth regardless of what happens with the mine.
My view is that cobalt will very slowly have a trickle up in price and they start the Contruction of refinery end of this year.
Keep an eye out for June this year. Thier timeline states a lot of the preconstruction stuff will be done by then. Testing materials, permitting, company selection to build it etc. Finance will come between June and October in my best assumption.
