Ann: Positive AD-214 Phase I extension study results, page-169

Also I think you have to consider the time factor for big pharma.

AD214 has taken a decade to get to this point. Let's say 3 years have been wasted along the way for various reasons, but that's still 7 years from discovery to end of Phase 1.

With patents running out and an ever increasing need to keep the revenue streams ticking along, for an upfront payment of $45m big pharma can save themselves not only the cost of developing the drug ($45m to date), but also the 7 years of development, not to mention mitigation of the risk involved, as there is no guarantee that even after 7 years they could get a drug ready to start phase 2, with a safety profile and novel mode of action in a multi billion dollar market.

Therefore with that in mind I don't think the best light to view the upfront is against current MC, I believe it's against the time and risk mitigation for big pharma in getting an alternative drug to this stage of development, therefore in that light, a $45m upfront and another $45m for phase II trials, so under $100m gets you a drug that in three years could be starting a Phase III in a multi billion dollar indication with little or no competition