Yes peak sales only x 4 2591 indications. Model doesn't include Daybue.
I think its fairly accurate valuation given our position, in which the likely hood of TO is probably 80%, therefore this valuation identifies Neu's stage of development in the 2591 asset based on successful phase 2's, US$10bn is respectful figure given stage 2.
There may be slight premium paid for Daybue revenue and x 100 other indications also or this might bump us to the US$10bn mark as apposed to US $5bn, who knows.
The 100 other indications are up to the suitor of Neu if they choose to go alone we may get a slight premium if the drug seems a unique superior asset sure, but hardly significant would assume.
BP to take Neu and Acadia out is a likely scenario at US $10bn for Neuren and US$6bn for Acadia, suitor packages up pipeline with all global rights for US$16bn
If Neu go alone they are looking at US$22bn peak sales from x 4 indication in 2591, and all the other indications potential upside too as they develop.
NEU Price at posting:
$20.42 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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