Notwithstanding the strong preclinical and Phase 2 results, significant clinical risk exists for any drug at Phase 2 stage in neurology. That said, we believe that Neuren is undervalued even when ignoring the NNZ-2591 opportunity, thus we view NNZ-2591 as a ‘free option’ at the current market valuation.
It wouldn't surprise me to see an outsized response if Pitt-Hopkins (PH) comes in as expected as a highly successful P2.
Firstly, there will be the response to the PH success and a second hit for NNZ-2591. Tangled up with that will be an attributed greater probability of success assigned to the Angelman trial (rightly or wrongly) and possibly to PW as well;
Secondly and importantly, NNZ-2591 won't be a free option any longer, and the beginning of its value attribution will hit the share price. And my view is that at $35-40 minimum, it will still be well under where it is ultimately heading.
Some trigger is going to release the value locked up in NNZ-2591 and the next trial result seems like an obvious tipping point.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)