Just going off the chart and ignoring the fundamentals, I would still have sold out recently around 17-17.5c once it bounced off the fib level, the rally was clearly done and it was going to retest some lows.
Again, just going exclusively on the chart, I'd have been hovering over the buy button when it closed the gap, but I'd have been waiting for sign of a trend reversal, suspecting it might retest the 11.5c low from earlier this month, and even then I'd have been waiting for a reversal before buying back.
Given the fundamentals, let's face it, some people are strangely still holding out some hope that guidance might be met (bizarre as that is, it is the case, we even see people posting about it here) and when that doesn't happen tomorrow it's likely to cause a late selloff in the last session of the quarter. Presumably some stage next month they'll put out an update about the plant, and let's be honest, it's probably going to be the usual 'we're really happy and optimistic with progress behind the scenes and we look forward to working towards improvements leading to optimal production!' nonsense with zero tangible progress to report. The market won't like that.
My main concern was (or as a holder would still be) that a CR trading halt could hit at any moment, and you don't want to be caught holding when that comes.
As I said earlier this year, you can analyse this chart to death and back to life and to death again, but the price isn't going anywhere particularly high without fundamental developments. People said I was crazy when I first started talking about the need for a CR, some even claiming there was sufficient funds to get through several more years (!!!!!), but it's now almost inevitable, and if there's no dramatic improvement in the next quarter, it will be all but inevitable; it takes time to go from 'Oh! We fixed the problem!' to 'We've tested the whole system at high throughput' to 'We're ready to start ramping up production' to 'We've actually started producing salable product in meaningful quantity' to 'We've started selling and have money coming in'. This is all in best case scenario where no further issues are found in the system, and let's remember, the maximum rate of production so far has been tiny, nowhere near 10% of nameplate, so to assume they're just suddenly going to rapidly race towards high level production and sales is quite fanciful. What's far more tangible is the cash burn rate and deadline for raising new funds - they simply can not leave it to the last minute, meaning they'll probably have to raise funds within the next quarter (or the following one if they really want to wait for the 11th hour).
This reality is becoming increasingly apparent to the market, and even if the market cap/share price represents good value, it's terrible to be holding when a CR trading halt pops up, and of course they never give warning, it's essential for it to be a surprise.
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Last
5.0¢ |
Change
0.004(8.70%) |
Mkt cap ! $72.79M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
4.7¢ | 5.2¢ | 4.7¢ | $224.9K | 4.583M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 67846 | 5.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.1¢ | 208417 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 67846 | 0.050 |
1 | 43478 | 0.049 |
1 | 62510 | 0.048 |
2 | 225000 | 0.047 |
6 | 295616 | 0.046 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.051 | 208417 | 2 |
0.052 | 170962 | 6 |
0.053 | 553567 | 8 |
0.054 | 143113 | 2 |
0.055 | 227616 | 6 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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