Speculative M&A Transaction Analysis, page-702

First-in-class versus best-in-class: an update for new market dynamics

I highly recommend all investors to read this paper released by the Boston Consulting Group, authors of “What matters most in commercial success: first-in-class or best-in-class?”, who have completed a new analysis evaluating the drivers for commercial success using clinical compounds from 2010 onwards.

Boston Consulting 2.pdf

The Boston Consulting Group updated their analysis to explore the evolving relationship between a drug's launch order, therapeutic advantage, and commercial success, and to understand the implications for companies introducing new products. They evaluated 29 drug classes with novel mechanisms introduced after 2010, totaling 104 products. The selection criteria focused on novelty, competitiveness, and significant market size, while excluding classes with atypical market dynamics.For each product in the selected classes, they assessed three metrics: launch order (based on the date of FDA approval), therapeutic advantage (rated on a 3-point scale evaluating efficacy, safety, and administration), and commercial success (measured by the present value of global sales through 2028, using historical data and consensus forecasts, discounted at 10% annually with 2021 as the base year).

The key takeaway from their research was the increased advantage of first-to-launch products as they tend to perform better than in the past, with their advantage over second-to-launch products increasing significantly. For example, first-to-launch products with a medium therapeutic advantage score now capture 82% of the value compared to a first-and-best product, more than twice as much as a second-and-best product.

For an investment such as ours, Bisantrene has extreme upside potential through the two first-in-class and best-in-class pathways to commercial success. A highly specific epitranscriptomic pathway (FTO) that has been shown to be a driver over 30 different cancer types and subtypes and possibly a driver in many more, as well as a potential world-first cardioprotective MoA with chemotherapy synergy. In oncology, first-in-class products were shown to have a significant advantage over followers, especially if they have at least a medium therapeutic advantage score. This is due to the expansion of treatment options and the ability of first products to benefit from a long lead time or demonstrate superior therapeutic value over time. For cardioprotection and synergy, RAC would only need to demonstrate a slight improvement in anti-cancer activity alongside cardioprotection to have a blockbuster drug in Bisantrene. The authors also found that factors such as breakthrough therapy or orphan drug designations, simultaneous development, and the ability to expand the addressable market through valuable indications or sub-indications can significantly affect the distribution of commercial success within drug classes.

The updated analysis by the Boston Consulting Group on the dynamics of commercial success in the pharmaceutical industry underscores the growing importance of being first-to-launch, especially in the oncology sector. This research is particularly relevant for investors considering the potential of Bisantrene, which stands out with its first-in-class and best-in-class prospects. With its unique targeting of the FTO pathway and its potential cardioprotective mechanism of action with chemotherapy synergy, Bisantrene has the potential to become a blockbuster drug.