I know Paul has been asked about this from the analyst (I think) who works with PAC Partners.
I have mentioned my thoughts to Paul, he said it'll depend on the results of the PFS and what Graeme, the board and the investors think. Obviously if there's no interest and there's no one willing to fund the project at that stage then we're going down the traditional route, but...
Paul can't say anything that's sensitive in nature. I'd imagine he and every other speccy CEO has hopes that their resource is so good, and that the numbers add up after two rounds of studies, that is a no brainer to go mining. That and minimal further investment / dilution is needed. Happy days.
Is Bekisopa different? Of course we all think and hope so, but at the end of the day... We don't matter. The only people who matter are the ones with the real money are what's important.
If the PFS paints a rosy and confident picture, then things will be in our favour, and I think we can probably go forward with fast tracking the project.
If they're not as we hope, then it'll be another 4 to 10 years before we go mining.
My confidence comes from these things, in this order:
- the resource is there, it's visible and available on the surface, and the drill results prove it's there under the ground
- WAI can't be bought, they've published conservative numbers that AKO will need to prove those estimates should be revised up. I don't think this could be gamed or done easily
- Paul has a lot of experience, and Graeme has even more experience. I have faith in Paul, he's been shown to be prudent and frugal, as well as demonstrating his ability to deliver outcomes that can prove the resource, company and the credibility of the management team. Graeme has shown he can let and develop a market leading company in this space. He also has a massive network that can be leveraged.
- the Malagasy government have been in the pocket of the world bank and will play to their tune. There needs to be oversight and transparency. This election was opaque at best, but if it delivers an outcome that gets us where we want to be and provides a positive benefit to the people of Madagascar, them I'm all for it.
- iron ore is essential to the development of the world, and that's unlikely to change in the next 50, 100 or 200 years. We'll be long dead before then, but maybe we can give future generations opportunities we didn't have.
The fact is there are a number of companies in the data room, I've got no idea who they are, but there will be one or two strategic partners we choose to go forward and mining with.
I'd expect if your don't support us early in our endeavours, you won't have favours going forward.
This is my speculation, but if you're selling a car, and someone kicks the tyres but doesn't buy the first time, then you won't do them any favours if they come kicking the tyres the second or third time you're trying to make a deal.
Breaking ground early 2025 would be amazing, and I think it's feasible, but there are a lot of thing that need to be completed and reported on before then.
What won't stop is the consumption of a finite resource, and the upward pressure that puts on the underlying resource price.
62%, 65%, 68% or 70%+ will be in demand. Capex and opex will make it break projects, and I believe we will have some of the most compelling numbers in the market.
My speculation only.
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