Only 4 weeks ago on 9 March 2004, I posted a table giving the implied valued of AWC (based on the takeover plan) for a range of possible AUD/USD exchange rates (0.62 to 0.70) and for a range of possible Alcoa share prices in USD (USD$26 to USD$36). As you will all be aware, the Alcoa sp has been on a bit of a run and last night finished at USD$37.18. So I have supplemented my previous table to now show Implied Value of AWC for a range of possible Alcoa share prices in USD (USD$33 to USD$43).
Implied Value of Alumina (ASX: AWC) based on Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shareprice
Basis:
28/02/2024 Announcement:-
scrip consideration of 0.02854 shares of Alcoa common stock for each Alumina share.
0.02854
AWC Implied Value in AUD
AA shareprice (USD)=>
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00
40.00
41.00
42.00
43.00
AUD/USD rate
0.62
1.519
1.565
1.611
1.657
1.703
1.749
1.795
1.841
1.887
1.933
1.979
0.63
1.495
1.540
1.586
1.631
1.676
1.721
1.767
1.812
1.857
1.903
1.948
0.64
1.472
1.516
1.561
1.605
1.650
1.695
1.739
1.784
1.828
1.873
1.918
0.65
1.449
1.493
1.537
1.581
1.625
1.668
1.712
1.756
1.800
1.844
1.888
0.66
1.427
1.470
1.513
1.557
1.600
1.643
1.686
1.730
1.773
1.816
1.859
0.67
1.406
1.448
1.491
1.533
1.576
1.619
1.661
1.704
1.746
1.789
1.832
0.68
1.385
1.427
1.469
1.511
1.553
1.595
1.637
1.679
1.721
1.763
1.805
0.69
1.365
1.406
1.448
1.489
1.530
1.572
1.613
1.654
1.696
1.737
1.779
0.70
1.345
1.386
1.427
1.468
1.509
1.549
1.590
1.631
1.672
1.712
1.753
So at last Alcoa sp of USD$37.18 and todays exchange rate of 0.6566, the Implied Value of AWC is a about AUD$1.61.
Where to from here I wonder?!
AWC Price at posting:
$1.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held