Child SRaGvHD
Target 300 children per year
Price guess, 500k USD per treatment ( weight based )
150 million USD .... relatively fixed market size
Adult SRaGvH
Target 1500 adults per year
Price guess, 750K USD per treatment ( weight based )
1.125 billion USD... relatively fixed market size
CLBP
Target 30,000 adults per year ( extremely conservative )
( This is less than the number of annual spinal fusions, and substantially less than the number of hardcore opioid subscriptions for back pain )
Price Guess, 30K USD per treatment ( between most opioid and surgery costs )
900 million USD..... Massive room for scale up here with well over a million sufferers and an ageing population. Could easily 10x penetration, and still be well under 30% total market penetration.
Just looking at SRaGvHD, market sales is around a billion USD with around 50% market penetration. CLBP is around a billion USD with something like 3% market penetration , and only using 3x the cells MSB used for the dreamHF trial they already completed. If they got serious, employed bioreactors, and made 30x the cells used in the Dream trial per year, for 300,000 treatments/injections, looking around 10 billion USD.
None of this includes external licensing, royalties, off label use, or even considers CHF , crohns, or any other trial or other area the company is moving into. This is just the near term ( 3 years away) possibility.
2 billion in sales, pe 40 to 1..... price could easily go into 25$ + range with just SRaGvHD and CLBP Approved..... EASILY.
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