You are probably right as they control 37.6% plus there will be others in the inner circle.
Why would they sell if within the next 12 months if SPR may have an MRE at NN close to 2m Oz with a high proportion being in the indicated category and a reserve of possibly circa 1.5m Oz which is more than BGL has.
If SPR follows traditional valuation metrics it will have a significant SP re-rate when SPR declares a reserve - given SL is targeting a reserve 70%-80% of the MRE even based on the 1.7m Oz MRE the reserve would be 1.2m Oz to 1.35m Oz and maybe more if some of the additional MRE at June is converted to a reserve. At NN the reserve could exceed 700k Oz to 800k Oz at a high grade. BGL saw a significant re-rating leading up to and after it declared a reserve in July 2020. These are significant reserves.
Such a reserve puts would put SPR in the same level as BGL’s 1.34m Oz.
I thought they were looking to declare a reserve mid- 2024 ie in 2-3 months.
That is, other than an increased MRE mid-year, there is a big SP catalyst coming up ie a reserve. If one looks at the history of other gold developers, once a sizeable reserve is declared, there is a significant re-rating of the SP.
But we may find the reserve is lower than my figures above.
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