If Quantum is to go all the way to USD $300mil pre-payment, this is IMO a more likely path to play out:
1. Quantum will pay up to USD $100mil in 2024 and another $200mil in 2025.
2. Likely AVERAGE reference price for the 1st USD $100mil is USD $2300. Why?
- The first USD $35mil for 372580oz is at USD $1900 as we have known.
- The other USD $65mil for this year is likely to be spread over the balance of the year 2024 at average reference price of USD $2400 - $2600.
- So, you have the first USD $35mil at reference price of USD $1900 and next USD $65mil at average reference price of USD $2500, giving an average reference price of around USD $2300 for the first USD $100mil.
That is more practical and realistic scenario for 2024.
3. For the balance of $200mil to be paid next year, gold price is likely to be in the range of USD $2500 - $3000 per oz, giving an effective average reference price of around USD $2700-$2750 for the USD $200mil paid in 2025.
4. So, you have first USD $100mil deposit paid in 2024 with average reference price of around USD $2300 for around 869k oz ($100mil ÷ $2300 ÷ 5% = ~869k oz) of gold purchase.
Note: you can check and verify this number by doing the reverse calculation: 869k oz × average price of $2300 × 5% deposit = around $100mil.
and the second lot of USD $200mil deposit paid in 2025 with average reference price of around USD $2750 for around 1.455mil oz of gold purchase.
5. So, this is the more likely and more realistic and more practical result: if Quantum is to go with full commitment of USD $300mil pre-payment package with $100mil paid in 2024 and $200mil paid in 2025, totalling USD $300mil, the total gold purchase contracts will likely amount to 869000oz + 1455000oz = 2.324mil oz. Not 3mil oz. And this is good for Besra.
So, forget about 3mil oz in this new record gold prices reality. It will be more likely USD $300mil for 2.3mil-2.4mil oz.
USD $300mil pre-payment as 5% deposit for 2.3mil oz to 2.4mil oz gold purchase. That's what it is. That's how I see it.
NOTE: the only way Quantum can take all 3mil oz of gold purchase off-take in this new gold price reality is to increase its pre-payment from USD $300mil to around $380mil-$400mil by itself or with its partner.
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11.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $45.99M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
11.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 11.0¢ | $4.598K | 41.79K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 177624 | 10.5¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
11.5¢ | 300000 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 177624 | 0.105 |
9 | 1183180 | 0.100 |
1 | 200000 | 0.098 |
1 | 68000 | 0.097 |
1 | 200000 | 0.096 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.115 | 300000 | 2 |
0.120 | 395000 | 3 |
0.125 | 140542 | 4 |
0.130 | 279762 | 3 |
0.135 | 150000 | 1 |
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