I think we actually will be out of suspension this time within about a week. Thats only a guess though based on the fact that the brokers have been getting in touch with participants regarding the cr so we should at least be getting much closer now.
It's been in suspension long enough that we should have at least an update on IDC. I can't see any good reason why it won't come through but it has taken a long time so it's hard to see how that won't affect the timeline. No doubt Merch will give me his mandatory 4 replies to that last statement! Maybe he can try for 5?
I'd like to be wrong about any further delay but it is going to be at least around mid April coming out of this suspension with no IDC cash in the bank yet. I think with the sub 10c sp, the market has priced in a lot of funding risk. To say we need a positive IDC outcome would be an understatement and to get it approved should have a positive effect on the sp. I don't know if the market is expecting or pricing in another delay to production but at sub 10c I think the market is at least not expecting any meaningful profit this year. I'm now counting on the full year of production for next year. Company guidance on next year was around 155,000t from memory. If they can meet that, it should result in a very strong profit, perhaps more than half of the current market cap on my estimates. That would be very good for the sp over the next 12 months.
If I knew on the release of the DFS that we wouldn't see a good profit until 2025, I would have sold and waited till this year to buy. I didn't expect that so I stayed in. If we get the IDC plus cash from this cr, that should open avenues to the remaining funding and strong profits next year. If the company can show that to be the case, this should be the year to finally expect big returns over the coming 12 months. Being in suspension, all we can do right now is wait and see.
Just on the cr, participants have a choice to opt out due to the lengthy suspension. I'm staying in.
