Hi guys,
I was making a considerably deep research about potash industry for the last two months while I was accumulating ELM at different price levels along the way.
I have a huge information database and I'd like to share them with you bit one bit in coming days, weeks, and so on.
I have studied all of the other potash related companies in Australia and found out that no other company can ever reach to ELM's resource features and the capability of its management. I have also studied all the other producers and explorers of the world. And I can comfortably say that ELM has a world class deposit.
I will give the resource details of Sintoukola project later on. Firstly let's look at the basic technical information about potash mineralization now. The information below is prepared by me. (not a copy and paste) This also will answer of our dedicated poster DDzx. (thanks to him by the way)
Potash fertilizer;
resulting from the mining and milling of sylvite (KCl) bearing rock (Sylvinite).
KCl / Silvite (Potassium Chloride)
The product mined and sold is KCl. This is the important point. Also called MOP - Muriate of potash. The terms ?muriate of potash? and the contraction ?K2O? are commonly used in the Saskatchewan potash industry to refer to the sales product
K2O (Potassium Oxide)
A ton of KCl contains an equivalent of 0.63 tons of K2O
(This is the answer to DDzx - it's not 50%, but 63%)
Sylvinite
Sylvite bearing rocks
The mixture of sylvite (KCl) and halite (NaCl) that is the source of the ?potash?. Sylvinite may also contain clay and anhydrite and dolomite crystals that are water insolubles.(3-5%).
Sylvinite bearing rocks can contain 30% to 40% silvite.
KCL / Silvite may contain 19% to 29% K2O. (this is the given grade in ELM anns.
Or we can say; sylvinite may contain 19-29% K2O (~63% of KCl)
It looks like a bit confusing but this is how the mineralization standards are given.
Example; One ton of Sylvinite may have 38% of KCl, and that makes 24% K2O grade. (1 ton x 38% = 380kg KCL --> 380kg KCl x 63% standard grade = 240kg K2O at 24% grade)
Let's calculate the value of ELM's 300mt reserve target. (38.7 billion!)
When we talk about 300mt at 24% K2O grade sylvinite, takes makes;
300mt x 38% = 114mt KCl underground.
The recovery rate is 20-40 for underground (room and pillar) and solution mining. If we get 30% recovery rate, the mineable product will be;
114mt KCL underground x 30% recovery rate =
34mt saleable KCL
KCL has $340 per ton market price today.
Asset value (saleable KCl)
34mt x $340 per ton KCL = 11.6 billion
Mine life: 11.6mt / 600kt per year = 20 years.
We are talking about only the SYLVINITE resource here, not even talking about the very thick CARNALLITE deposit underneath the sylvinite. The assay result will come for it too, very soon.
Also, if they can mine the sylvinite by open cut mining technique as it is very shallow, the recovery rate will be 100% and the number above will be tripled.
SO THE STOCK PRICE IS GOING UP LIKE A ROCKET AS MANY OF US HERE CAN'T EVEN UNDERSTAND THE REASON WITHOUT ANY KNOWLEDGE OF POTASH MINING AND INDUSTRY.
Resource estimate: Kola target (just one of 3 Sintoukola targets)
I am talking realisticly and about the minimums here.
ELM is drilling an area of 7km by 4km. They exluded the major fault area at the east side. This area looks like very flat without any fult lines. (fault is a very important obstacle in this potas mining game).
On the last report, they have found two sylivinite layers with thickness of 4.17m and 3,83m. There is also other thin layers above these layers. The total of of these thin layers is 3.42m (0.61m+0.54m+1.19m+0.64m+0.44m). However I think these thin layers can be recoverd only by opeb cut mining technique but not by underground ans solution mining.
Then it makes a 11.42m sylvinite layer of 4km by 7km area.
That makes a sylvinite deposit of 319mt. (11.42 x 4000 x 7000) which confirms the target of 300mt.
This only for the Kola prospect.
We have also DOUGOU prospect with sylvite mineralization and Kandi prospect with carnallite mineralization in the Sintoukola project. There are old rills holes on Dougou prospect but no data is available. That will be another surprise for the shareholders.
I am hoping that ELM will prove above 1 billion ton of KCL resource in Sintoukola project. That would give us around 300mt recoverable sylvinate product with 114mt saleable KCL product. That would make a 57 mine life with 2mt per annum production rate. 2mt is the target annual production rate of most big potash mines in the world. With $120 per ton cost rate (this is the calculated cost rate of MagIndustries potash from Carnallite deposits in Congo), the profit will all depend on the world market price of potash which is around $340 now. (this price is very close to the producers of Saskatchewan in Canada as their cost price is very high) So we will have a very good price advantage in Congo. The standard cost of mining potash is $200 for solution mining and $230 for underground room and pillar mining, but it is very high in Saskatchewan.
Other notes;
- 65% of ELM sahres are hold by top 20. Very tightly held.
- Top 3 holds 32% (ANZ, HSBC and NAB)
We will talk a lot more about ELM from now on.
Cheers.
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