March quarter predictions, page-19

Agree with your comment Daicos, that Aeris is highly leveraged to the Copper price. A one cent rise in the USD price per lb translates to a $33.40 AUD increase in revenue per tonne. At an annual run rate of 30000 tonnes per annum that translates to just over a million dollars profit as it drops straight to the bottom line (provided the 1 cent increase is maintained across the year. With roughly a billion shares on issue that translates to an eps increase of 0.1 cents or an increase in share price of 1 cent a share assuming a PE ratio of 10.
Put simply a 1 cent rise in the US per pound copper price should add a cent a share to the share price.
Commenting on the debt to Soul Patts of 40 million at the end of Dec 2023, perhaps increasing a bit during Jan and Feb due to the lower copper prices then, the same logic can be applied to assessing the impact of reducing the debt back towards zero. In the H1FY 24 accounts interest payments were 8.6 million, so expect that to roughly double for the full year. If Aeris can repay that debt over the next 15 to 18 months then an addition1.7 cents per share of eps will drop straight to the bottom line. A PE of 10 would add 17 cents to the share price.
In summary Aeris is highly leveraged to both the Copper price and if it can use the increasing prices to get rid of it’s very expensive debt.