The trading has been incredibly solid, high volumes pushing it up all week...
Definitely seems like a bigger player trying to get in.
For all the old guard who have been here since the 10c-20c days, current prices are pretty miserable, and most would be sitting on big losses, even with some averaging down..
Now though, hopefully the long awaited copper crunch is coming, and we'll be rewarded for getting in, though for many it was much too early!
Yes, we've got a massive resource, worth heaps, and is likely very economical to extract at these copper prices, and we are very leveraged to an upswing:
HOWEVER:The debt and convertible notes are a big issue, as I'll set out below:
SOI (fully diluted) - Roughly 2 billion
Current Market cap - $44 Million
Fully diluted Market cap - About
$60 MillionCash - roughly
$20 milDrawn Debt -
$15 milConvert notes with MLX (lets call it debt, it pretty much is at this point) -
$35 milTherefore our EV is (60-20+15+35): $90 Mil
This is still quite a high EV, even when compared to peers, like say HAV, who are closer to $75 Mil, with not a hugely smaller resources (much less sunk cost and they're selling their asset though)
EV per tonne of copper looks pretty good, sure, but the big risk is the debt is around 10% interest average (4% on con note and higher than 10% on Nebari facility), and pop it together and calculate costs, we're looking at $50 mil of Debt, costing roughly $5 mil per year... (this is a bit exaggerated, probably closer to 3-4 mil) Not great, especially with other costs still being relevant and updated studies being paid for!
Now there's rumors of selling off the gas turbines to deal with the debt, not sure if anyone here knows how much this might net?
Don't love the idea of selling assets we'll need down the line to keep the sharks at bay, but might be whats needed..
Additionally, I hope there are strong talks with MLX regarding the Con notes, and maybe some sort of deal - Otherwise, in March next year, we suddenly need to pay back $35 mil, a hell of a lot, and maybe or maybe not that can be covered by selling chunks of the assets...
Would be very interested to hear others views here, and whether I missed anything??
Otherwise, fingers crossed something productive is happening with talks with MLX, and that the copper price keeps flying, that will likely fix most of the issues haha
It's been a rough ride for many here, hopefully we're seeing real green shoots at last!
GLTAHs and I'm sure there'll be some snarky whinging from our resident trolls, hopefully they didn't short the copper market!
