We had a good run from 0.045 to 0.140 in November. And we consolidated and ranged for several months. All indications were for a breakout to the upside, and yet the price dropped to 0.091 taking out stops, even dipping outside the range. The volume increased on this, sucking in sellers like a vacuum.
Now you might be thinking I've got a few details wrong there, that my prices don't match up, but thats because I'm not talking about 2024. That is what happened 3 years ago, in 2021. Following the dip to 0.091, the price popped back up into the range for a week or two and then we had the breakout that the chart indicated the entire time. That breakout led to a run to 0.495 in the space of just 7 weeks, from 06/04/21 to 27/05/21. That breakout and bull run was a result of that prolonged range we had been stuck in. Seemingly on the smallest news the share price ran hard, and the rest is history.
Fast forward toto 2024 and the similarities are striking, as you likely picked up from the opening paragraph above. We ran from 4 to 15 and we've been ranging for several months. All indications are for a breakout to the upside, and yet we've dropped for some random unknown reason back to 0.091 taking out stops on increased volume, sucking in the sellers.
The similarity here is really bizarre. I mentioned a day or so back that I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a fake out lower to draw in sellers. I also mentioned that we won't know until we are looking back, but so far it would appear this is straight out of the 2021 playbook. If that's the case, then the next move is back into the range, and on to the breakout that I've been waiting for.
There are some differences this time though. The technicals are much stronger now than in 2021. Fundamentals in 2021 were based largely around Hervaxx alone, look at what the company has on offer in 2024. Our 2024 range is now even longer than the 2021 range - the longer the range the bigger the breakout. I don't recall if there were line wipes to the upside in 2021, but it was only a few weeks ago and we had some big buys going through taking out 12 & 12.5. Those sort of buys don't close up shop an sell for a loss a month later. What they do is stack the register and sell down to the self sucking in as much as possible. Think about out 10c wipe - why did they wait for the auction to sell? Why didn't they sell throughout the day.
These forums are such a good indication of why the big boys use this strategy, many are panicking and throwing their hands in the air, not really taking notice of the bigger picture. It happens every time the price dips like this, and then it recovers and everyone is happy again, except for the ones who got sucked into selling. I wonder how many people would smash their computer if there was a TH pre-trade Monday morning with a deal of some sort. More than a few I reckon, but that's the risk, and that's why the big players are always happy to buy your fear.
Now for my view of this forum and thread. I do these analysis for my benefit on my own investment and I'm only interested in the long term picture. I'm happy to answer questions and help, but I really couldn't care any less if you skip over the posts. Writing these analysis helps me get a better picture in my own mind. I trust my system and I know its accuracy. It's not 100% - nothing ever is. One of the issues that frustrates me is when people come along, look at my long term forecast for a move that hasn't even happened yet which is still unfolding and then cast stones because of a short term move that doesn't harmonise with the long term picture. At least if you are going to throw stones, have the brains to backup your accusations with quotes in context. Just don't be a wank, a few folks have done it right and I respect them for that. I've got no problems being wrong, or even being called out for being wrong. Those that can't have a proper discussion will end up on ignore with all the other useless clowns.
Take a look at the similarities below:
2024
2021
(20min delay)