Ann: Minbos Investor Presentation - Angola Rising, page-493

"A4N Australian company producing in Australia. Angola different region more risks"
A4N had and has plenty of risks too. Less country risk but much higher technical risk, funding risk and barriers to entry on a very specialist product dominated by major sized companies. Minbos has far less risks overall. A4N needs capital in the hundreds of millions while Mnb needs US$26mill. A4N needed that much capex plus working capital for at least three years when the market cap was well under $100mill. It's now around a billion market cap.
As for country risk, some of the best performing companies I've ever owned had as much or more country risk.
OreCorp is in a very high risk country and that risk actually played out and pushed me to sell at around 20c for a 7c loss. Despite that high risk it's now under two takeover offers and near 60c.
Equinox resources was in Africa and was taken over for multiple billions of dollars. Perseus has been successfully mining on Africa for decades and there are many other companies successfully operating out of Africa. Including multiple oil companies investing in Angola for many decades.
Andean resources was supposedly very high risk in Argentina at a market cap of $9mill. It was taken over with a market cap in the multiple billions. Countries with perceived risk can offer the best opprtunities and companies taking the challenge can create the best sp performances.
I can understand Carlton's posts. He is super bullish when he wants to sell and super bearish when he wants to buy lower. He's gone from a holder to a non holder while the stock has been in suspension. I'm guessing he smells an opportunity to top up his holding lower and might be playing that.
Some other poster's here don't help their cause.
I don't disagree with discussing issues and risks but they should be realistic and balanced. Anyone reading this thread with little knowledge on the company would likely not bother spending any time researching for themselves.
The current cr described as massively dilutive by some is actually only diluting by 10% on the heads and the options are subject to shareholder approval which looks unlikely to me so at this stage if you are going to discount funding that is not yet guaranteed, you should also discount options that are unlikely to be approved by shareholders.
The capex that some describe as too high relative to market cap is nothing of the sort.
Remaining expenditure to get to production is US$26mill. The US$14mill IDC loan is probably approved according to that broker letter posted this week. That leaves US$12 or A$18mill.
The cr looks like raising $6mill, leaving just A$12mill.
Maybe add $10mill for working capital which the broker letter said could be covered by working capital loans so they might cover part or all of that remaining $12mill. That won't leave much, if anything, for a possible last capital raising later.
So 10% dilution now, taking the fully diluted market cap to around $95mill at 9c. Possibly needing another cr or perhaps not, depending on these working capital loans.
While it's all taking longer than guided and longer than anyone here would have liked, it still is all coming together and by no means insurmountable. First production is next year now. We heard that last year too and the only thing needed to keep that on track this time is the only major milestone remaing. Locking in that finance. Lock that in and production next year should be locked in. Production next year is not far off.
At that point we still have a project with a DFS after tax NPV of A$310mill. More like A$350mill after the post DFS capital cost savings of around US$28mill which is A$43mill. Plus the NPV will rise further based on much higher sales and profits with the upgrades to guidance following the Carrinho offtake. It realistically could be in the range of $360-400mill. That would equate to a sp of over 37c based on all shares and all options being exercised.
No one liked the options as part of the cr. They don't change the upside by much but vote them down and look forward to to that strong upside into next year.
Don't dismiss the risks or negatives but also don't forget the value and upside.