Twincreeks- I remember that show being very weird yet good... anyway I think you are being impatient. NOV 2010 is the big one. I will worry if no notice of completion of upgrade in Nov. Not worried right now... It just seems long as you are anxious.
I expect the expected profits to be made instantly from Nov 2010 being 8.6M \ 12 months for month of Nov\Dec 2010. This will be a sign for me to load on up below $2.
NMP processes are very advanced and I expect some news very soon... SPL process I expect nothing and I have heard BHP have this tied up now. Anyone heard of others completing a similar NMP process??? I cannot find...
OS deal with Alcoa is the BIG ONE. 40x the volume in a JV in the US... then 100x ++ around the world. We all hope to hear something in regards to this very soon. As the executives of Alcoa USA are in Aussie. As stated before not to simply to check out our night life. Yet if a deal done, would not mind sharing that celebration.
How are others able to displaying my name and others in the top share holders... as I thought it was private except for the Top 20? Yet I saw someone list approx Top 50, how do you get this info. I surprised to see it only takes 200K to get into Top 50. Yet not many shares on issue I guess.
If no JV and they are to fund themselves then we will need to come up with the money to do so and it will slow progress down. SO I expect and wish for an OS JV deal like everyone hear, yet I do think Alcoa will play hard ball- it is their way. Especially now as Alcoa know us investors are starting to price this into the stock...
I doubt any Cap raising needed unless they decide to fund themselves or part thereof- a deal may not go ahead if Alcoa play too hard. MHM Directors know what is fair if Alcoa will pay for acceleration of further factories. I predict a 40% profit taking for Alcoa if they supply 80% of the capital. That will be a fair deal. As in Aussie MHM get 60% of profits, so it makes sense that this will continue worldwide with Alcoa as main sugar Daddy. Lets face it- this is what a JV will be- as they have the cash and MHM do not for a SUPER FAST expansion.
SUPER FAST is what we want...
What do others think?
Good edge to the high again on Fri $1.21... looks like an ANN soon as volume increases due to a leak. A push to $1.50 on good volume will confirm to me that a deal ANN about to be made and I will load on up further. No matter what others stocks I need to sell down in.
It difficult to take profits on this one with so much upside, like many investors I suspect it hard to press that sell button. As i very much regretted selling 25% at 50 odd cents. That Herald Sun daytrader (Really he a ST trader, not day trader) probably vought my lot- yet he has very little and it his best performing play this year I believe. It certainly is a 1 in 1000 Coy.
Breaking all my trading rules on this one- as these guys makes up far more than 10% of my portfolio now. Profit taking already cost me near $150K- darn it. Wish i had that moment in time back again. Anyway that is looking at the glass half empty- we should be thankful we are aboard on this Coy.
I did the same thing with SSN\ADO\CCC- profit taking has cost me a fortune this year. Plus my tax liability will be huge... anyway it could be worse like in 2008. When my portfolio dropped nearly 70%- that was a killer.
My risk tolerance really being tested now as I see my portfolio go up and down daily more than my yearly SME Director day job income, sometimes.
Yet overall the market is looking far more confident than a couple of months ago- who knows in a couple more months in regards to overall market.
I more confident in MHM than the overall market- believe it or not. This is a good sign... sent another 20-30 odd questions and have requested to forward as advised to the the 40 odd people supplying details. So I have not forgotten about you. I hope some of you offer just as much in return for mutual benefit.
I do try to give a lot of thought to my monthly questions. Knowiing my investments inside out is very important to me these days- verbally + emails + face to face correspondence has helped me greatly this year.
I am sure Askier ia an advocate's this strategy, as this is his way. Previous years I kick myself over may investments- not this one. I know the score- risk reward wise below $1.50- $2 we have a very good deal IMO. ATM.
$1- Factory 1 fair value.
$1- Speculation over Alcoa OS deal yet depending on deal another $2-$4 in ST.
Risk is no deal and fund themselves- in this event we may drop 30-40%. Also Plant 1 issues- depending on hold up issues- doubt it due to Director buying and correspondence.
NMP- is a bonus, not priced.
SPL- not priced and I do not expect much.
Silica- bonus not currently priced. In advanced talks appartantly.
Mining\Exploration- I do not care and it is not priced in. Sell these assets- would be my choice. Buy assets if wish in future when making 50 mil pa would be my choice. As many of us know singualar direction to start is essential. Yet MHM promise that Upgrade plant and OS expansion is by far their primary focus... the rest seem to be assets to work on for another day.
Overall Risk\Reward valuation = $2.20 for my money. As stated before... Completion of upgrade and prove of income instantly may see us here very soon. Alcoa deal the BIG ONE.
ANYONE have differing valuations- would be interested to hear... as I share my calculations. I hope others share. TTC is always good value. Askier dulled down in recent times. A few more coming to the fore front with good info that is appreciated also. Many heads better than one...
I personally do not mind the less optimistic and those stating Cap raising- as it possible yet improbable when a deal Anned. As OS ambitions are very very high. Currently they make 100% of profits OS, whereas only 60% in the Aussie contracts. All contract going through Plant 1 via Alcoa and Simms.
Jan 2009 deals was the real turning point in the future for this company- a company making time in hindsight. Wish I could perform such deals in my own biz- it seems genius to me. Will make the careers of these Directors or let them sail away into the sunset. Time will tell.
Exciting times... Good luck
Hope this helps some evaluate their future with MHM- either way- know your risk Vs reward. As opposed to charts I believe. Charts have their place in Blue chips I believe, not in ANN and deal based small Coy's IMO. Not to put down chartists- it simply not for me. IMO only.
Cheers Jay
MHM Price at posting:
$1.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)