DVP Technical Analysis, page-2540

Apologies for format .. in a rush.

It’s not just the gold price that has been getting miners moving on mergers and acquisitions– the copper price ascending to lofty heights is being seen as a motivator as well.

Which has had some thinking in recent days perhaps it’s time that Metals Acquisition makes its next big bet following its $1.6bn purchase of the CSA copper mine at Cobar, NSW when it was a special purpose acquisition vehicle.

The next target on Metal Acquisition’s to-do list has widely been considered around the market to be the Mount Isa Mines complex in Queensland owned by Glencore, its 14 per cent shareholder on listing.

If Glencore is in fact a seller, why not act on it now?

Metals Acquisition successfully listed in Australia on February 20, with its initial public offering priced at the top of its price range at $17 per Chess Depository Interest.

Its chief executive Mick McMullen has credibility with the market, and he could capitalise on that good will.

There’s now been plenty of water that has passed under the bridge after it started life by acquiring CSA in 2022, with the deal closing the following year.

Plus, the price of COMEX copper has rallied 24 per cent in the past six months to $US4.43 per pound, causing Metals Acquisition’s share price to rally.

It could be a prime time to capitalise on that upward lift to its value price and tap the market to fund another transaction.

While it’s widely believed that Mount Isa Mines would be in Metals Acquisition’s cross hairs, it’s not clear to what extent of the business it would acquire.

Glencore describes Mount Isa Mines as one of the world’s largest mining complexes, operating as its hub of copper and zinc operations in Queensland.

It is the second-largest copper producer in Australia and is a key asset in Glencore’s global mining portfolio.

The asset includes underground mines, mineral processing and smelting operations, power generation and support and administrative services.

Glencore operates the two copper and zinc-lead-silver processing stream.

It operates copper and zinc concentrators a filter plant, copper and lead smelters and support services.

Products are transported to Townsville for further refinement and export to domestic and international markets.

If it is the whole thing, the size of the deal is set to be well north of $1bn, although it also comes with rehabilitation liabilities, which need to be factored in.

In the same way with the CSA transaction, perhaps Glencore helps Metals Acquisition into another purchase, in what would be a further retreat for the Swiss trader from the Australian market.

The CSA mine cost $US1.1bn ($1.6bn) and owner Glencore helped to fund the deal through a deferred consideration facility, which Metals Acquisition was to pay back after the float.

CSA floated in February as a $US758m business after already listing on the New York Stock Exchange to seek additional funding to pay for its acquisition of CSA.

The IPO was upsized to $300m and from $200m and then again to $325m and was two to three times oversubscribed by investors, keen to gain exposure to copper on the ASX after BHP acquired OZ Minerals for $9.6bn in 2023.

Now, Metals Acquisition’s market value is $1.4bn.

Working on the float was Barrenjoey and Canaccord Genuity, so if there’s any deal to be done around Mount Isa, it’s likely they would both feature.