@Alejandro1 Good to see some effort digging into what BSE are swapping into, and yes I had another look this morning. Have some knowledge of them on account they have been an emerging player in the US monazite processing scene, monazite provided by mineral sand miners like Chemours. You said
"They do not have any Uranium contracts going forward, all sales on the spot market. They sold zero Uranium in 2021 and 2022 but had a large sale in 2023. Can this become the norm going forward? Because the market is not pricing the company as if its most recent results will continue. Even so, the majority of the $0.60 EPS was due to irregular other income of $119M on sale of assets. If not for this, they would still be loss making even with above average Uranium prices due to substantial SGA and exploration/development expenditure.
This may be good for Toliara funding prospectivity and current managements job retention. However, for SH, I think the asset will be diluted and lost in the balance sheet. With any value eaten away by losses from Uranium operations and dilution."
I'm not in complete disagreement that EF are priced for the future, not the past which has not been kind for various reasons, including typical environment trouble by the usual do-gooder NIMBY's. I would prefer BSE got an offer with rock solid Tronox stock, but we got the partner we got so far. EF is a bit like NEO PM in the rare earth space, in that they have years of experience, operations and permits to expand but until recently they were profitless in an unfashionable, unloved sector. The current share price clearly reflects Uranium potential, which is demonstrable, and very little for the rare earth potential on account rare earth price/market is in the toilet.
A BSE tie-up really does allow EF to become a mine-to RE-Ox, if not to magnet, producer who already has monazite cracking facility up and running (maybe 3-4 ex-China in the world!). The 'modest' $1B MC means that Toliara is really meaningful still, because Toliara is a multi-billion NPV at heavy discount rate, and the way NPV works is that it discounts huge profits 30, 40, 50, 100 years out into almost nothing today. Really long life, really profitable projects are really unflattered by NPV analysis... there is a large uncaptured value for very long life cash-flow. Hopefully, being in the US and already an established $1B MC company, they can raise the finance (US critical mineral cheapy) with equity funding (and maybe US critical mineral grants) on reasonable terms if US investors see the world class fundamental margins and cashflow Toliara will spin out for generations to come? Bolt on real 3:1 reveune:cost for the min sand side of things, then add vertical integrated RE production and profits and EF starts to look like a real old school winner in a market of often smoke and mirror profitless plays...
BSE had all sorts of issues facing getting Toliara funded and not diluting themselves doing imo... happy with this strategy and value re-rate.
GLTAH
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