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BIT036- a likely candidate for curing COVID-19, page-2050

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24/04/24

16:23

Post #: 73501698
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Originally posted by GiddyYup: ↑

The price is under pressure because by now most people suspect that other than the quarterly the next significant announcement is likely to be the rights issue. They also most likely realize that we are probably already into the 30 VWAP period for calculating the price discount for the issue. Assuming the market price doesn't drop much lower during the VWAP calculation period (again, "assuming") and knowing the average discount Biotron uses (based on last 4 raisings), the issue price is most likely to be around 4.5c (somewhere between 4 and 5c). These assumptions are based on the historic behavior of this company.

The key sign that the market had moved to this assumption was the sudden rush for the door offloading existing options which coincided with certain posters telling us all how good value they are and that they are personally buying. Surprise surprise they have fallen well over 50% since Feb and there are now virtually no buyers for them at all. Why?

Well since the strike price for the existing options is 6c, if there is a CR consistent with the company norms, the SP will struggle to stay above the strike price.

More importantly whilst some boldly declared in these threads that as soon as the options are above water holders will exercise them and the company will get all the cash thus avoiding the need for a CR, by now you can see that this was BS. No amount of incessant posting made this come true. In fact the options have been above water since last Oct but in the almost 7 months since they remain unexercised and the cash still firmly in shareholders pockets.

A CR is likely coming soon. The SP indicates that many suspect it also. The usual suspects will blame shorters, manipulators, etc and claim that people are just trying to steal their shares cheap but those with an open mind to the information available know this isn't the reason for the SP downward spiral. The truth is no secret. Most of us know it even if we would prefer not to talk about it. Issuing cheap shares always puts downward pressure on the market price so an actual CR announcement is likely to cause a lot of short term heartache.

Don't expect the quarterly to necessarily tell you what to expect either. Do you recall the quarterly for Q3 2022 in which they stated that they could continue operating "supported by funding from the R&D development grant rebate and potentialother funding sources". Just three days later they announced the CR and shareholder suddenly discovered that they were the funding source !

All of the above is mere discussion about why the SP is doing what it is doing and what will likely happen next. Some will rightly point out that there are still results announcements due in "coming weeks" or even "imminent". That is true and given our updated education on the newspeak meanings of those terms these announcements could well drop anytime between today and 2028. What is likely to happen in coming weeks or months doesn't necessarily change the outcome of what could happen if they can produce truly great trial results and incite BP into doing a transaction of some sort but equally that possibility won't prevent any short term carnage resulting from the inevitable demand to put you hand in your pocket again.

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Lots of maybes or ‘paralysis by analysis’
Perhaps we should all just wait and see.
The Quarterly is due and Management will be obliged to give some reason for their existence.

BIT Price at posting: 6.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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