Understanding Telix, page-678

Let's take it a step at a time shall we?

A few years ago, I started using COH as a benchmark for where TLX could aspire to be. Back then COH had a market cap of $16b. It's now $20b.

But let's go with $16b. That would need notional annual revenue of $2b (based on the simple rule that works for CSL and COH - market cap is 8x revenue).

I used to think that we'd have to wait for therapy to kick in to get anywhere near that. But it now looks highly feasible that we could reach that with imaging alone, in the next few years. TLX's TAM for Illucix ended up being ridiculously conservative in a good way. Let's see how things go with with the other two.

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A bit of creative googling tells me that CSL floated in 1994 and was doing ~$200m revenue per year at the time. The share price is roughly ~400x up since then. I'm assuming that those revenue figures are not adjusted for inflation.

Inflation means that $100 in 1994 is about $227 now. Let's call it 2x to keep things simple. So That tells me the share price is (adjusted) up ~200x and revenues up ~40x. (adjusted revenues at float say $400m in today's dollars).

I could have stuffed up some of those numbers but it's late and I don't really care.

So let's look at things and a make few handwaving conclusions.

Firstly, all those decades of existence, all those labs, all that history. We can put a value on that: $400m a year revenue at listing. (in today's dollars)

Telix was listed 6.5 years ago and is now doing $700m a year annualised. Points to Telix, I'd say.

Secondly, CSL is up 200x (adjusted) in 30 years.  Telix floated at <$1, so (adjusted for inflation since floating) is up ~12x in 6.5 years. Actually if you overlay TLX with CSL from float price, I reckon they wouldn't look too ridiculously different. CSL's price actually went backwards after 2001. (I read an AFR article on the history of the company from about a year ago, can't remember the details.) Anyway, hopefully that won't happen to TLX as the second product hits the market. For now points are even, and on a comparative basis if TLX doesn't have a 5x drop in its share price it could be well ahead of CSL at a comparable point in its history. Give me a choice of 50x in 10 years or 200x in 30, then I'll take the former every time.