Ok, i will put my hand up and say this fairy tale has turned into a bit of grim reaper.
But i won't start blaming management about their presentation styles nor some conspiracy theories about big holders holding the stock back for their gain, that's just utter rubbish and may help you be comfortable with your decisions but that's where it ends.
Even more concerning is the talk of day traders doing the damage, what a load of rubbish, the art of day trading is selling and buying back in cheaper in the same day......in the last 2 weeks this has been impossible.
As i eluded to in a previous post there has been a big seller about who was using an algo program to drip feed the shares into 1.2 and testing 1.25 for the past 10 days, he was offloading 1-2 million of shares a day in very small parcels, patient and methodical........for 2 days i soaked up the 1.25 otherwise they would have been drip feed into the guy onto the top of the que at 1.2....and it was a big que.
On friday i'm assuming that big seller had nearly come to the end of his quantity and slammed the rest into 1.2, that spooked a few other large orders to follow.
This seller was in the top 50 no doubt, could be the remainder of Ayers capital 26m shares, previous Qtr sold 50M ? i did write that up in a post at the time, they were the ONLY sellers in the top 50 in the last substantial holders list.
Everyone has a reason to buy and sell, and no one is gifted the right to a profit in the stock market.
All that being said.
The catalysts, J'Vs, drilling programs, ounces in the ground etc have only increased in the last few years for AZY, but our share price has not, and on that note maybe we should not have gotten to a M.cap of $250m in the first place, however i do believe we do deserve that now.
What has changed, and no body is addressing is the Paterson Province itself.
Rio, should have been mining Winu in 2023/24 and trucking ore from calibre, we still have no start date, and its now unclear of Rio's intentions, however Winu will be mined, its a brilliant deposit and of scale.
Havieron, should have been pumping ore out by now into Telfer, it is not and the decline is in limbo, J'v drilling by Newcrest was at a snail pace due to its takeover, and now Newmont offloading Telfer has lost us around 2 years all up.
This has put a big ? on the area.
But to me the gloss on AZY's tenure and assets has not lost it's lustre, the share price certainly has, but it's not all the managements fault, nor the day traders, nor the amount of shares on issue, nor the capital raisings, blame whatever makes you happy, it's called a market for a reason.
If you think the big boys are going to walk away from Winu, Havieron, and from Telfer itself , and AZY assets are only valued at todays prices well you might have bought a dud, i'm certainly not in that camp, and that's after a lot of thought and retirement money put into this play.
But i will own that decision, and not go off making stuff up, why the things are the way they are at the moment.
Am i happy, NO, has there been a missed opportunity in deploying my capital into other opportunities, YES.
But that's all in hindsight, the same stuff the old holders come back and say, i told you so, you should have sold, i moved onto better and greener pastures.
However, the story also could have turned out so so much different on one drill intercept, or if we had not had the 2-3yr hold us with the big players in area.
This is coming to ahead, no doubt about that, but i have no idea what that last chapter will read like.
But i certainly do know, i don't what to be that old guy saying, i once had an idea, a vision and i let it slip through my fingers.
I still like this story, and the circumstances of the last 2 weeks has probably been around i holder of probably 30m shares out of 4B.
As always, ANTIPA numbers plates sit proudly in my office, hopefully the car to match will be in the garage at some point, otherwise i will put them on the ride on lawnmower .
Yes i did watch the Anzac Match, and yes, have had a glass and half of wine.
Whatever you do, own your decisions, don't blame others and don't make stuff up.
"you can copy trades, but you can't copy conviction" .......do your own homework
Cheers
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