It's a bit of a different ball game now, because spot price doesn't matter as much as it did, at least till 2032 for now, in the US, because it includes materials from anywhere, and the 2 conditions in the US IRA exclude non FTA countries
https://infogram.com/1p37wn1dp6q7l3i0rqwpg1j1eybd7vyllrq
Each condition equals a $3750 direct point of sale subsidy on the EV, totaling $7500
and an extra $10,000 p/tonne still equates to much less in the battery cost than missing the criteria for the subsidy, for example
In a Tesla Model S it would be $630 (63kg)
In an average LFP EV it would be $350 (30-40kg)
So a US battery/automaker would rather pay extra for the battery material, if it needs to, to meet the criteria, and that's why new processing will develop outside of just China.
Argentina doesn't have a FTA with the U.S and would of been excluded under those IRA subsidies, but the U.S last year invited them to a meeting along with some other FTA countries and said it intends to make a special agreement like it did with Japan in the past and also noted that Arcadium was even a US company, so that Argentina qualifies under the agreement and said it will enforce policies if it has to.
https://buenosairesherald.com/business/mining/government-negotiating-lithium-export-deal-with-us
Feb this year since Milei took office there's also been this
https://www.mining.com/argentina-us-strengthen-ties-concerning-critical-minerals/
(will delete previous post as this is a bit clearer)
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