Ann: Quarterly Update and Outlook - March 2024, page-25

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bcjk3

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29/04/24

18:48

Post #: 73565677
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Originally posted by precis: ↑

Nice post bcjk3. I tend to agree about analyst reports and find self- learning about the industry and especially the company to be critical. If I knew back in about 2010 what I now know I would have bought NST at 7c. Anyway, that one sure got away. However I do fit the category of investor you chat about, and over-subscribed for the recent 9c SPP.
In the interim (ie prior to Federation) we seem to have a barrier at 20c which isn't too dissimilar to the 11c barrier we had for a few months earlier this year. I see that as a sort of holding pattern until the end of year approaches. So what should be happening is we spend $15-20 million Capex at Federation based on us already having spent $50m to date and the company projection of $65m-70m FY. So at the low end of the projection the $14 million inventory we hold just about covers it or at worst we spend an additional $6 million.
Then we have an expected increase in revenue because of mining the higher grades at Peak. Using the mid points for gold and copper we'll get an extra 1.5koz gold worth an extra $5 million and an extra 0.65kt of copper worth an extra $8.45 million on last quarter. The upshot being we should be in a stronger financial position come the quarter's end, with our cash conserved or higher, and Federation knocking. 20c won't be a barrier. So that's two months away and hopefully come the Q4 results we have a definitive start date for Federation. I'd like to see a date for mining the very high grade gold near surface at Federation. Cash will flow rapidly at that point. I tend to think we overshoot analyst reports of 22-23c at that point in time, but rather sit in the range of 25-30c. This will depend on the ramping up of Federation, the rich gold interval timing and Peak delivering or better still being on the upper end of guidance. These three factors will determine the new level for our share price.

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Hey mate

Thanks for responding and I share the same sentiments and numbers. I think for something capped at $321m with $106m cash and a $215m EV with one operating mill and one on C&M we are still cheap given whats imminent. I also have Dargues as a catalyst in my mind because we’ve either got cost savings coming due to relocation of critical equipment or just a straight up fire sale which should bolster the coffers from July onwards.

The prices you mention is possible all without any real institutional ownership. I think we just under the radar at the moment.

AMI Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 19.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $321.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
19.0¢	19.0¢	18.5¢	$79.98K	426.0K

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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5	500075	0.175
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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.190	1052671	7
0.195	929777	11
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