So like everyone has probably heard and read already, First Quantums Ravensthorpe is going under care of maintenance. News were around already in the beginning of the year.
It's pretty massive how many mines in Aus are under care and maintenance or going to be - Wyloo mines + its ones in Canada, First quantums Ravensthorpe, Panoramics Savannah, rarely mentioned IGOs Cosmos, where they produced around 20kt nickel while we were drilling there, went under care and maintenance in late feb and lastly Nickel West operations. DDTRH, Giovanni or Clocksmurf - don't remember who but one of them covered this topic in detail in January.
Mike Henry said he doesn't believe it's nickel businesses will be profitable before 2030.
Little copy from article - “The nickel projections talk about this probably being a 2025, possibly 2026 story.
The reason why it’s a 2025-2026 story is probably because by the end of this year we should have got through all the Indonesia ramp up, and all the new builds should have reached maximum capacity. Therefore there’s no incremental supply or oversupply out of Indonesia.”
While Henry mentioned they are not profitable at current prices then let's put it in perspective and think about highly desired gold miners. Often I've read about their AISC and it is somewhere 1000-1200 USD per ounze. Good mines achieve AISC 50% from golds market price. Our AISC will be 6000 USD per tonne. With current nickel price it's 3 times lower. 3 TIMES LOWER. WHAT ON EARTH ? Please somebody point out how many gold mines you know which AISC is 3 times lower, not to mention nickel mines. Even majority of Indonesian mines can't achieve that.
Please boys, correct me if I'm wrong. Seems too good to be true, even based on MOM podcast. May-be I miss something.
And for JC, it's not about capex, it's how ridiculously low is AISC. They can achieve really high profitability while securing majority of product for Japan. If we would go one on one with miners in Indonesia, 80% of them would go under care and maintenance.
My belief in ARL is high and I even took comfortable loan to buy shares on top of my own capital. I remember when years ago my good friend told that never invest money you don't have. He was convinced by book he read. In that time it seemed obvious and logical until we drilled in Goongarrie. My toughts then - I have my own, debt free apartment in my home country, I don't have any debt + people always invest money they don't have. Even my friend. He is doing good financially and bought apartment with bank loan for 30 years. Rent payments - bank loan - taxes he gets 20% monthly from rent payments. Without bank loan yield would be 3.75% annually, with bank loan it's 0.75% annually and for 30 years. And I was comfortable with ARL. Today, even with falling price, I've made nice profit already.
That was just a little side story how comfy I am with ARL.
Lastly, my good friend doesn't work in the company anymore, where I was with him in 2022. I sent out couple messages to see if I get any update on Goongarrie or other tenements drilling update. Don't guarantee anything but I'll do my best
(20min delay)