Is NHC undervalued or overvalued?, page-3

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Justace

2,498 Posts.

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30/04/24

13:10

Post #: 73582695
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Originally posted by borano: ↑

You be the judge. I am putting out there some real basic metrics.

HALF YEAR 2024
Total revenue $857m
OCF $131m
EBITDA $425m
NPAT $252m
EPS 30c
Realised price $197p/t AUD

Uplift every metric above by whatever you want. See what you get and again be the judge.

FULL YEAR 2023
Total revenue $2.75b
OCF $1.53b
EBITDA $1.75b
NPAT 1.09b
EPS $1.26
Realised price $346p/t AUD

Best case scenario (I think wishful thinking) in the 2nd half of this financial year is in my opinion 20% increase in the 1st half metrics. No real reason, other than an increase in saleable coal from further production at New Acland and possibly high realised price for coal and possibility

Share price @ 19 Sep 2023 (release of results) finished at $6.30, up 13 cents from the day before, declared dividend of 30 cents. Range of share price over the following month was $6.30 - 6.50.

Share price @ 19 Mar 2024 (release of results) finished at $4.60 up 17 cents from the day before, declared dividend of 17 cents. Range of share price over the following month was $4.60 - $4.66.

Today as I post it is $4.55.

My opinion FWIW I believe that NHC has further movement downwards at least for the short to medium term based on the above. So, in saying I am on @hagetaka original corner when he said share price is going down. Under $4.00 as he originally suggested nobody really knows, except an institution that may dump aggressively like on 21 February when it an hit intraday low of $4.20 only to bounce back and close at $4.47, up 1 cent for the day. 2 days prior it also had got savaged to the tune of 60 cents.

Can that happen again? I hope so.

One last thing, there used to be a huge connect with WHC, now no longer for obvious reasons.

Looking to buy back.

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It would appear that Acland has increased their output in recent weeks for thermal coal the good gear. Just need to sell it at a darn good price!!

NHC Price at posting: $4.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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