high time to invade cuba, page-10

TOU,

The Chinese do indeed have a strong and emerging middle class, as do the Indians. Trouble is,d this is measured in terms of the number of people (ie: 200M MC in India, 80-100M MC in China), rather than in the amount of disposable income they have.

Relative to their country-folk, the MC is well-off. But when measured in Western terms, they still have a long way to go. That's why the Japanese MC remains the more potent force.

Beyond this, I have long argued about the internal issues facing China which could easily rip apart its onward march towards future prosperity.

Now, another issue needs to be added to the equation - the fallout associated with the 'one child policy'.

In consequence of this policy, China's absolute growth rate is slowing down, and the population is rapidly ageing.

In modest terms, China lacks an effective pension system. State support is limited or entirely unfunded. And China has a growing income /wealth gulf rather than a diminishing one.

China's risk, therefore, is one of internal disruption over the coming years, leading to the quite high prospect of internal disintegration and the break-up of the greater Chinese nation.

Rather than letting this simply occur, this prospect makes it almost inevitable that China will eventually make good on its threat to retake Taiwan - not to re-integrate its people, but to raid its horde of savings and island wealth.

Now, the USA will not permit for this to happen. Nor too the Thais, the Indians, the South Koreans or the Japanese. Nor too the Russians.

But quite frankly, more than the Americans, the Chinese fear a more active Japan which within the next 12-18 months is likely to over-turn its Cosntitutional ban on militaristic re-armament and will start to re-arm.

More than anything, an armed, re-armed, or nuclear armed Japan poses the gravest risk to China.

The only thing stopping Japan from re-arming at this time will be stopping North Korea. And, onthis score, the Chinese will become increasingly pressured to do things.

So, China has enough problems on its own plate - problems conveniently overlloked or ignored by the State and by commentators. But problems nonetheless which once accounted for diminish greatly China's claim to being treated as a global economic and militaristic power.

China is surrounded by its enemies, from without as well as from within. That much is assured.