chartwatch, page-29

Hello Fishinick - that is a bit of a tough question. I have not been following ARV anywhere near as long as I have been studying RMS. However i have been paying attention to ARV since mid August and I have a thumbnail sketch of value now but will apply my mind to it further in the days ahead and see if I can cook up a rationale that takes into account all the info available (and I am waiting for the quarterly report and drilling results from the Mt Clements campaign for some of that).

However until further information is revealed I can say this - post the rights issue, including all listed and unlisted options there are potentially 454,504,652 shares on issue. At todays close of $0.072, if all those shares were taken up, the market cap of ARV would be approx $32.725 mil. Of course they are not all issued yet. but that is the fully diluted value at todays close.

I have a report put out by Hanuman Private Wealth on November 9, 2009 on Artemis that base case valued ARV at $29.2 million then, based on cash, uranium and iron ore tenements and 70,000 oz of resources at Mt Clement and Yandal to which they ascribed an in ground value of between $20 and $30 an oz. At the time they put no value for Yangiabana or other REE EPMs in Qld and this was before the Ag-Au-Cu lodes were discovered at Mt Clements.

In the prospectus for the rights issue the rather cluey cats at Artemis revealed that there was both potential for extension of the flat lying lodes well out into the surrounding plains, and that an earlier explorer had proposed a possible resource of 2.4gpt for the entire Mt Clements outcrop. This is big tonnage. Further to that Artemis has discovered that previous explorers have underestimated the specific gravity, the density, of the rock that makes up Mt Clements, thus underestimating tonnage there. So the deal got bigger with a bit of math. with the two deeply plunging polymetallic leads all previous valuations have to be put on hold till we see where those go and how highly mineralised those systems are at depth.

So just to use the Hanuman base case of $29.2, add in the extensive REE tenements in WA and Qld with the value adding work that has been undertaken to understand those deposits in the last year, include the polymetallic zones at Mt Clements, the 5000 metres of exploration permits in every direction from Mt Clements that have barely been touched by an auger or drill and i suspect there is plenty of value left even at the fully diluted valuation. I suspect a lot more will be known to work on within the next few weeks - but as always DYOR - i know you do Fish.
Cheers ET