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DamienR

18 Posts.

19

01/05/24

10:58

Post #: 73603529
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Originally posted by ferrarii: ↑

While I want to be bulish on SYA, I don't think the rest of the quarter results would be much better than most of us think. Feel free to let me know what you think on the below.

This comment from PLL announcement worries me at least for this 2024 year (nothing that SYA and PLL have different FY). The below states that ~16kt worth of Q1'24 spof sales was to PLL so remaining 42kt for SYAQ.

Assuming NAL can produce run rate would indicate below calendar year 2024 production. Allocation would be below. Please correct me if it looks wrong and would be good if i'm wrong (which means more SYAQ spod allocation and allowing SYA to benefit more on spod prices upside)

This benefits massively for PLL and I feel SYA management had a play in this. Essentially PLL customer offtake is weighted in H2'24, PLL will have suggested to SYA management something along the line of "yeah you can take allocation in first half and us second half as we still have cashflow issue to sort out, customers offtake H2'24 etc.".

If PLL offtake with its customers are market price driven then they will take all the upside of spod prices movement (and downside movement). SYAQ will be stuck with cap USD$900/t price from PLL for the rest of the year. My suspicion is that SYA management also wanted to bank on unit production cost going down from production ramp up so the loss/gain of sale to PLL will be minimised.

I hope I am wrong but in order for SYA to get out of this, as many as suggested, is to go downstream ASAP.

Expand

This is how I expect it to play out also @ferrarii, the SYA upside only occurs as the Plant efficiencies increase or processing of the ore improves.

The benefits will balance closer to nameplate but at the end of the day this current situation isn't attractive or ideal for SYA, our only positive is that we are part owners of a strategic asset. Mr Market doesn't place any value in sentiment hence the share price/Market Cap doesn't reflect.

We need a CEO that can improve our asset base, increasing processing efficiencies, blending in Authier ore or getting to the target of refining Carbonate circa H1 2026.

I just assess the viability of SYA board/CEO based on working backwards from those key milestones, whether it's $$$ or timing of critical deliverables.

Atm their is still $$$ and time, not seeing much delivery of the critical deliverables, hence my assessment of current executive team performance.

SYA Price at posting: 3.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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