Understanding Telix, page-709

Yes, as reminder:

@ajostu

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-2023-full-year-results-presentation.7863610/page-4?post_id=72565480

"My reading of what was said is that people aren't dying as quickly as expected."

@Werble

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-2023-full-year-results-presentation.7863610/page-5?post_id=72565840

"my understanding of Prostact select is that some people in the market are asking when the overall survival data is going to be available.. the company was basically saying they can't really put an accurate estimate on it because it is driven by people (unfortunately) passing away."

"I believe the company was trying to comment that rather than being impatient for this data we all should really be hoping that it takes longer (implying a more significant survival benefit)."

@ajostu

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-2023-full-year-results-presentation.7863610/page-11?post_id=72566614

Completely agree with you here.

My suspicion is that for several reasons, everyone's being careful how they phrase this.

Firstly, understandably enough, human lives are at stake, company reps like CB will want to discuss this subject with some degree of decency, and "we're waiting for people to die" sounds more than a bit crass.

Secondly, you probably have to be a little bit careful in how you say this (while "people not dying" is maybe not secret it's still effectively an undisclosed trial result) just to make sure that the company doesn't look too much like it's implying what we're inferring- that there's a significant survival benefit.

Also good to get some colour (to use a favourite buzz phrase) on what the Prostact GLOBAL cohort will look like in terms of disease progression.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/inaugural-profit-overlooked-as-r-d-spending-soars-at-telix-pharmaceuticals

According to Wilsons Advisory's, Dr. Shane Storey, there is a major catalyst mid-year that could see Telix's share price soar north of $20 – which could mean around 87% in upside from here.

@MaddogTrader / UBS

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-2023-full-year-results-presentation.7863610/page-26?post_id=72577882

Expectations for TLX591 data:  between VISION and PSMAfore results

Telix expects to have PFS data for TLX591 (prostate cancer therapeutic) from the ProstACT SELECT trial mid year. Novartis's VISION and PSMAfore data for Pluvicto present benchmarks in a sicker and less sick population respectively with median rPFS benefit over standard of care of 5.3 and 6.4 months, respectively. We are therefore looking to something between the two, albeit Pluvicto and 591 are structurally different. We still use a small placeholder forecast since Novartis is a formidable commercial presence. If the data rPFS are good enough to suggest Novartis may have to cede share, this would likely change. Therapeutics cost many times more than diagnostic agents and if TLX591, or indeed TLX592 which should have early data in the next few months, look good then there is substantial upside potential to our existing forecasts.