Ann: Appointment of Receivers and Managers, page-31

Relatively new investor here with genuine curiosity in the spec mining sector. Disclosure, AR1 was my first investment into copper "producers" instead of explorers. What is actually going wrong with AR1, is the project actually viable even if the company makes it out of this suspension and where does she go from here?
The short of it is, on paper as far as i can tell, this project is viable provided at least 2,500t of Cu is produced a QTR

June 23 half yearly had AR1 record a cash inflow of $22M. At the end of the day, if AR1 wasnt debt laden we wouldnt be in this position. That half year AR1 produced 2,500t of Cu on average a QTR. This led to the $10M in cash inflows per qtr we saw. so what happened from there? Both the SEP and DEC QTR following we only produced 2,000t of Cu, totalling 5,000t for the year. we had cash inflows of, on average, $5M per QTR... barely enough to pay our required repayment on our debt. This means we closed out the full year on just $9M in profit.
What can we take from this? AR1 needed to produce 2,000t p/QTR just to break even. Producing more than that, gives us profit, less and we're just increasing our debt (obviously this number will move left/right with the rising/falling Cu price)
So whats going wrong? last QTR was Haulage not meeting targets due to weather, contractors and shit roads, ergo 1800t Cu produced. Prior to that was bushfires, therefore shut down production for 3 weeks.

Whats to come this QTR then? Well provided Wingate dont sell our tenements to pay off our debt, we have 2400t of Cu between the RoM at anthill and our processing facility. Assuming Thiess are still mining at the same rate they have over the last few QTRs, digging close to 500,000t of ore, RoM at anthill standing at 245,000t of ore and the newly hired haling contractors contracted for 250,000t of ore a month for the first 3 months, you can see how management are wanting this to play out over the next QTR. IF grades dont change, this QTR we will see upwards of 5,000t of Cu parked in front of our processing facility. This SHOULD amount to a conservative 16M in profit from the already mined ore (utilising ~$3AUD/lb for processing + admin fees) and a further 10M in profit from the ore being mined (utilising a very conservative AISC of $5.5AUD/lb). This is enough to cover our wingate facility, but still leaves close to $40M in debt, yet to be paid.

I see a path forward, but its going to be messy, and for this stock to go anywhere post suspension both a cap raise and more copper are a necessity (or the price of copper hitting $5USD/lb+). With no more copper, at best this project breaks even by the end of Anthills LOM and we're stuck with a processing facility, no money and sulphide tenements we cant touch without another raise.

i dont think this is the end for AR1 just yet, but the stench of death is certainly in the air. If Dan cant ensure 10000tpa for here on out, no ones getting their money back.