my view is primarily based on the correlation or fractal of the inverse head and shoulder breakout from 2008. i was about $15 off calling the top in advance using that fractal, and so far its laregly consistent in its pullback..
ona line chart the pullback of the break out leg was 50%.. however lower wicks brought it closer to 61.8.. but didnt actually touch it... so my base case is 50% off the back of that.
the overlaid fractal though points to a 61.8% retrace for this leg, hence my 2nd preference as a low.
all bets are off of course if gold resumes uptrend..
by and large i think there will be too many bottom fishers for miners to pull back hard
the XGD has already backtested the penant it broke out of, so no real need for it to touch that again
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XGD
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