To be honest, i'm pretty rubbish at calculating whats going on long term (especially trying to separate out the nat gas). The quarerly returns are the best history of quarterly production but I think Jewel only started reporting in the March 2022 quarter (is started actual production in August 2021).
My general thoughts are probably these wells make double their initial production cost (with a longer less material tail). Therefore my rule of thumb would be that this working interest should give us around US$2.5m in profits.
Funnily enough i have tried to chuck something together which once I actually got to the end seemed to support my thoughts (noting that this is really back of the envelope stuff) so not sure how much weight I would put on this. Basically i have allocated out the 2 year production based on Rangers year 1 vs year 2 production (for Oil, NGLs, and Gas). I have then assumed each year after that production goes down by 50% (no idea if this is too aggressive or not, but dont really have enough data myself).
Note i have assumed around $10 per BOE for opex, which i think was disclosed in a recent announcement (cant recall the exact number, nor if it was a life-of-well cost or just over the period)
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
| 0 |
|
|
BOEPD |
Oil |
Nat |
Gas |
| 1 |
BOE |
|
150 |
60 |
45 |
45 |
| 2 |
$ |
|
|
75 |
75 |
2.2 |
| 3 |
Factor (coverts gas mcf price to BOE) |
|
1 |
1 |
6 |
|
| 4 |
BOE $ |
|
|
75 |
38 |
13.20 |
| 5 |
Income |
|
|
4,500 |
1,688 |
594 |
| 6 |
Opex (per day) |
|
10 |
-600 |
-450 |
-450 |
| 7 |
Per Day Profit |
|
|
3,900 |
1,238 |
144 |
| 8 |
2 Year Income |
|
3,855,495 |
2,847,000 |
903,375 |
105,120 |
| 9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
Year 1 |
50% |
2,498,185 |
2,026,633 |
421,967 |
49,585 |
| 11 |
Year 2 |
27% |
1,357,310 |
820,367 |
481,408 |
55,535 |
| 12 |
Year 3 |
13% |
678,655 |
410,184 |
240,704 |
27,768 |
| 13 |
Year 4 |
7% |
339,328 |
205,092 |
120,352 |
13,884 |
| 14 |
Year 5 |
3% |
169,664 |
102,546 |
60,176 |
6,942 |
| 15 |
|
|
5,043,142 |
|
|
|
| 16 |
Prod Costs |
|
-2,500,000 |
|
|
|
| 17 |
Net Cash |
|
2,543,142 |
|
|
|
Was trying to work out when we got the leases. Dan might be able to shed some light on what DSU's the wells span, but suggest its over the following 4 DSU's. From what I can tell we last picked up acreage on the following years (calendar). Hard to really tell if we have had a large holding for a few years or if its the more recent activity that has resulted in our WI
14 (south of Bruins) - 2022
23 (2 south of Bruins) - 2024
24 (south of Jewel) - 2019
25 (2 south of Jewel) - 2024
(20min delay)