Based on the track record of the OEMs - failing to take action to secure meaningful amounts of local anode supply and achieving success with their lobbying efforts - I think there's a reasonable chance that the FEOC exemption period will eventually be extended beyond Jan 1 2027. As such, not only do I support the urgent removal of the tariff waiver, but I think the tariffs should increase by 5% every six months before hitting 50% in late 2026. The additional cost to the OEM and consumer is minimal ($200 up to $300), and is dwarfed by the IRA subsidies ($9k+ per EV); the tariffs are the only feasible way to ensure there is no incentive to lobby the US gov to push back the FEOC exemption to allow US cell manufactures/OEMs to continue to purchase cheap Chinese anode beyond 2027.
In short, the tariffs are now the only way to ensure - beyond reasonable doubt - that North America will establish a genuine local battery supply chain in the near future.
According to Oxford Economics, imposing tariffs is justified if the purpose is protecting nascent industries, addressing unfair trade practices, prioritising national security considerations and ensuring responsible labour and environmental practices. Economists argue all of these apply in this scenario.
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