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LJ - a Jewel in the Crown, page-97

  1. 5,121 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2313
    Some 'interesting' and creative logic gymnastics going on there.

    Here's a very simple truism that even the most noob of noobs should easily understand:
    The ASX is a 'matched market', meaning there are equal volumes of purchases (buyers) and sales (sellers) for each and every transaction.

    So... when you see the SP move down -- esp. SUB 1c (<-- key concept) -- on high volumes that aren't dominated by a single seller then it's safe to conclude it's a sure sign of weakness, not strength.
    Put another way, "Of course there was large buying volume. It represented the other side of each and every sell order that traded. That's how it works!" (Shakes head.)

    After all of these periodic large volume days over the past six months there still has not been a single F603 (new substantial holder notice) to emerge. Think about what any serious observer would make of that. Remember, the current 5% disclosure threshold is ~185m shares (currently 3,714m SOI). Sure, there might be a holder or two strategically sitting just below that mark, but it doesn't begin to fully explain the overwhelming unaccounted remaining cumulative volume that has already traded over the past almost two years which the 'accumulation' thesis constantly regurgitates.

    The so-called Buying Wall that has presented itself from time to time has eventually been taken out at every point on the slide down from the mid-2022 spike-high.

    Also worth noting is that as the SP goes lower and lower the volumes need to be higher and higher in order to maintain the same, or similar, dollar value traded. It's basic (inverse) linear math, not rocket science.
    So, on a noteworthy day of much, much higher than usual traded volumes (i.e. 45.6m combined volume (ASX and C'boe)), in dollar terms it totaled the princely sum of... wait for it... only $271.5K (i.e. a VWAP today of 0.5955c).
    That's a rounding error for any potential suitor who was supposedly somehow lining-up the company for a bid from the cover of under 5% over the past year or two. (Shakes head again.)

    In short: There has been no Grand Stalking Whale soaking up the volume to account for anything over 185m shares (5%). If there had been it would have been disclosed yonks ago. Rather, the vast, vast majority of traded volume over the past two years is very simply explained as an ongoing game of Pass the Parcel Hand Grenade as it has become increasingly clear wrt the deterioration of the company's prospects over time.

    This is what a slow-mo death spiral looks like.

    Last edited by zebster: 09/05/24
 
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