share price by june 2011

Would like to get feedback on realistic share price when ARDO expires. I am a novice, so pls forgive this awkward attempt:

To be super-conservative, let's assume another $8m CR at 20 cents is required (which is based on the original purchase announcement but may not be necessary) so this would bring the total dilution to:

ASX: ARD; 128,601,251 Ordinary Fully Paid Shares issued

ASX: ARDO; 48,210,751 Options expiring 30 June 2011 exercisable at $0.20 issued at $0.01

Now if we assume 6 months to get Bullant into production, as per announcement, and Bullant at 20koz pa (given 2009 was 27koz pa), I think that would be valued around $50M by the market ($500/oz profit, PE=5)

Then add $1/oz for Kempfield silver in ground 50% owned by ARD (seems conservative if market values SVL around $4/oz in ground), so that's another $10M on the market cap.

Then add another $10M for the conversion of ARDO options, because I have included them in the dilution.

Also let's assume at least another $5M cash in the till by that point, would probably be more given my assumed $8m CR and $2.5M/qtr profit from Bullant.

So let's add $15M to the mc for the cash balance.

Ignoring any exploration upside or resource upgrades, that's $75M, or 42cps.

Does that sound about right?