Hard not to start an argument shining a light on risks in this thread, it's become the 3 monkeys thread (nobody specifically of course ). See no evil, hear no evil, most importantly speak no evil ! Remarkable given recent horrendous losses to STA holders, who either didn;t want to consider the bear case on the way down, or made the mistake of believing management's confidence the small issues were either fixed or would be shortly at 'bargain prices'. Not just retail either, brokers who had already tipped their clients in at more than double the price tipped them in for a second dip at 20c and promptly lost the lot
Personally, SFX holders that used to like my STA posts (because they weren't in the shitshow I guess) are now narky as that I try to break down the situation and risks for the less experienced to consider. I'm a basher trading my own book for short term gains apparently... say it often enough and it must be true... "This is a 30 year mine , so not hitting a quaterly target is laughable reason to bash it" The naive ignorance in that statement is both amazing and horrifying, money's at stake ffs. Extrapolate out permanent Qrtly laws over LOM and the damage can be sever or even permanent (see STA for example).
Nobody is saying SFX is in STA's boat yet or ever, but dismissing any of quantifying the state of possible permanent downgrades, the implications for TB valuation, or verifying claims by management that's things aren't that bad is curious behaviour for holders to say the least. The recent discussion on who will take over a chronically undervalued SFX given " SFX represents a massive cash cow over the next 35 years. The best annuity stream they could ask for. With the development risk now removed from the project and commissioning well underway,"... is dangerous behaviour to say the least. From almost 20 years on HC, it's my experience that when bulls start distracting holders with discussions of takeovers because of the panicked/manipulated/bashed low share price... that's precisely the time to panic.
I've been running some number on TB based on the DFS vs last Qtrly vs Bridge St update trying to square the circle and it just won't close properly. I've had a look back at the satellite images of TB and the mine plan to get a better perspective on the situation, and it only raises more doubts. I've looked at the zircon con pricing vs Bridge St and Bruces webinar explanation and that doesn;t gel either... something fishy is going on unless I've made some big spreadsheet mistakes but I just can;t see it...
Give a dog a name... guess I better be back then
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