Trying to get a handle on the potential value of the upcoming phase 2 NNZ 2591 results...
If NEU get the $250 mil USD millstone this year ($77 million AUD) and another $65 million in royalty, the cash balance would be about $350 million at the end of the year.
If the Daybue royalty levels off at $80 million PA leaving a NPAT of say $50 million, and assuming a PE of 16 ($800 million), and the cash, would give a market cap of $1.1 billion....
Current market cap is $2.4 billion, implying the market is valuing the other trials at $1.3 billion dollars.
If half of this $1.3 billion is attributed to the upcoming phase 2 results, then could see a $650 million or 25% come off the market cap/share price if results disappoint...
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts if the results are OK...so neither an obvious failure or success, which I think is most likely.
Share Price, page-10084
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