Charts, this bullish contributor analyses the data presented and comments on it. Having listened to the CEO this morning and the presentation, I was left a little flat by the content.
The cyberdata breach which took down the claims engine for the entire health business in the US has also affected Mayne, mainly in Womens Health affecting script numbers in February and March but apparently we're back on a growth track for Nextstellis. Bijuva, full strenght, was also affected by a stockout for a couple of months. I also can't reconcile the IQVIA numbers for Nextstellis presented in slide 11 vs the demand numbers presented in February eg in February it was reported that the Nov, Dec, Jan demand numbers were 38k, 40k,44k but now the IQVIA numbers for the same months are 34k, 36.4K, 36.4K. If they keep changing what is being reported, it is difficult to assess whether Nextstellis is growing at an acceptable rate. However the April IQVIA growth from March is pleasing.
The Dermatology business was not affected much by the cyberbreach, as it is mainly a cash business, the market share obtained for new products like Rhofade, AgOracea, AgSoolantra and Doryx are excellent and suggests that the disintermediation strategy is working well. I expect a big upside in the Dermatology revenue and profit numbers in August and also an upward assessment in book value of the entire dermatology business which currently has only A$19M book value. This will lead to a large profit report for FY24.
Due to the cyberbreach there's "cashflow headwinds", I am unsure what this means for the year end as no new figures of cash were provided although they still sticking with positive cashflow contributions for FY24.
All in all, I give it just a pass mark whilst recognising that the cyberbreach is outside of their control and only temporary.
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